Executive summary of the report

The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh is the most
significant obstacle to peace and stability in the South Caucasus. Eleven years
into a ceasefire, the parties have been unable to sign a single document
bringing them closer to a settlement. Whatever is being done at the
internationally mediated negotiations, at ground level resumed war appears a
real possibility. There is need to counter the hate propaganda and demonising
engaged in by both sides and unlock the potential for confidence building and
dialogue between average Azeris and Armenians before the memories of
cohabitation fade and the divide becomes virtually unbridgeable.



Nagorno-Karabakh has aspirations for independence and argues with some reason
that it has a democratically-elected government that is meeting the
preconditions of statehood. However, it is internationally recognised as part of
Azerbaijan and is still highly dependant on Armenia for its military security
and economic survival: over half its army are believed to be Armenian citizens,
while Yerevan covers 50 per cent of the budget through an "interstate loan" that
is virtually interest free and unlikely to be paid back. Azeris do not
participate in its political, economic, cultural and social institutions.
Nagono-Karabakh has mono-ethnic institutions and become one of the world's most
militarised societies.



Deprived of the basic right to return to their homes, over half a million Azeris
displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent districts have become highly
dependent on the Azerbaijani state, without a clear sense of their future. For
years Baku's policies toward the displaced were designed to meet short-term
needs, with the expectation they could return home soon. There was more than a
hint that efforts to integrate them better were not pushed so as to use their
plight to score political points. The government's current strategy emphasises
more sustainable solutions but the displaced remain poorer and more
disadvantaged than their fellow citizens, struggling to increase participation
in political life not only to speed up prospects for return but also to improve
their immediate situation.



Armenian and Azerbaijani public opinion on how to resolve the conflict is as
divided as ever. Nothing has been done to prepare people in either country for
any agreement. Karabakh Armenians' expressions of confidence about their
independent future, and Karabakh Azeris' frustration and anger about their
plight as displaced persons are deeply at odds. Neither community appears
prepared to agree to the kind of steps toward resolution of the conflict
currently being considered by the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in
the negotiations sponsored by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in
Europe (OSCE).



For many historical, demographical, geographical, and economic factors, Azeris
and Armenians living in and around the conflict zone are dependent on each
other. Yet they are deeply divided by mistrust. Demonisation of the "other",
rising military expenditures, and increasing ceasefire violations are all
ominous signs that time for a peaceful settlement may be running out.



Parallel processes are needed for a stable settlement. This report explores how
the Armenian and Azeri communities from Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding
districts live today and view the potential resolution of the conflict. A
subsequent report will shortly assess the OSCE-sponsored diplomacy and attempt
to bridge the gap between it and the situation on the ground, focusing with
specific recommendations on both the main issues that must be treated in a peace
agreement and on what needs to be done to further inter-communal reconciliation.



Tbilisi/Brussels, 14 September 2005

Find full text of the report:

Nagorno-Karabakh: Viewing the Conflict from the Ground