The scheme of political system built in Armenia in the last eight years seems to lose its balance in 2006. The coalition agreement of 2003 among three influential parties broke with the departure of one of coalition parties Orinats Yerkir (Rule of Law Party) and the power divided in two parts.

High rang officials, the minister of defense, powerful businessmen and deputies of the Parliament consolidated in the Republican Party (RPA). On the other hand, the president of the country formed a new party Prosperous Armenia and allied his political plans with this party and law enforcement bodies. This separation was not fully apprehended in Armenia.

Later it became clear that Robert Kocharyan has his own strategy of the change of power when he leaves his post in 2008, and this strategy does not coincide with plans of the executive bureaucracy, which wanted to see Kocharyan off for an “honorable rest”, and fill the political vacuum by itself.

It would be natural if the current president considered joining his program with plans of bureaucrats, strengthening administrative resources and bringing the bureaucrats to power in elections of 2007-2008. Nevertheless, it seems that this is not the scenario planned by the president and he has serious reasons of considering other tactics. This was indicated by Vardan Oskanyan, Minister of Foreign Affairs, who presented a new political strategy on 15 July, 2006. He mentioned that Armenia should enter the second phase of reforms, which would touch economic and financial interests of the elite, and it sounded as a confrontation to influential governmental executives and deputies of the Parliament. What type of reform he meant is not clear, but it clearly contradicts the tradition of reproduction of a clan system, accepted by the Armenian politics, although not always successful during a short history of the Armenian Republic.

It could be suggested that this on-goings is just a show to disorient people but keep the current authorities at power. However, if you consider that high officials believe that reproduction of power means reproduction of their personal power and not the regime as whole, then it is not clear what is going on. Simply, Armenian interpretation of reproduction of power may mean just one thing: Robert Kocharyan goes away leaving the power to Serge Sargsyan, and everything stays at it was before. This movement is seemed supported by the program of the Republican Party.

Yet President Kocharyan forms a new party Prosperous Armenia, led by the richest “oligarch” Gagik Tsarukyan, and provides it with vast financial capacities. The party is closed for influential officials and businessmen and open for intelligentsia. It may look that this tactic is aimed at bringing many new names to the Parliament in 2007 without gross violations, who in their turn will support S. Sargsyan to become president and the current government will stay unchanged. This difficult task can be managed if influential opposition leaders are involved in the process, which we see happening, for example, Victor Dallakyan and others joined it.

Then, why the most corrupt officials and criminal businessmen consolidated under the patronage of Serge Sargsyan in the Republican Party? Obviously, such conciliation will become a target for many accusations. Political analysts started to use new phrases such as “consolidation of criminals” in the Republican Party and “danger of criminal coupe-d-ete”.

Possibly, the defense minister overlooked the seriousness of such a move being impressed by events of 1998, when such an alliance of the government and the minister of defense concluded with a political success, bringing the current authorities to power. However, nowadays this kind of alliance brought the Republican Party to marginalization and stimulated activeness of the opposition.

Do you think that our bureaucrats are naïve? Maybe, but it seems that they do not other choice but this one. The current situation does not have precedents in Armenia. Nevertheless, the power structures do not want to leave their positions after the president changes and nobody knows what the president does think.

This psychological atmosphere within political elite is destructive. Nobody believes each other, and all are exposed to any disinformation. In addition, everybody relies on his own efforts, which are aimed at a single goal: to preserve the status-quo and go over the elections 2007-2008. Such an attitude complicates internal political situation in Armenia. It is not accidental that assassinations of officials and businessmen became more frequent, the public confrontation between the Republican Party and Prosperous Armenia more periodical. Also, the press office of the President announces that he has no conflict with the Republicans, and these are only conflicts between the parties.

One may better comprehend the situation by comparing it to similar processes in Russia. In Russia they also announced that there was a need for a second party (guided by the President) for “the people are tired of the party of bureaucrats”. Thus, the conduct of Russian colleagues, who are more open and direct, explains similar processes in Armenia, eventhough the president of Armenia does not explain his political program and even keeps distance from the Prosperous Armenia.

It is also possible that President Kocharyan wants to change the composition of the current authorities in order to leave his post “safely”, and here he can have more support from outside than within the country. The crisis in internal situation may also stipulate to take measures, for it is hard to predict how the current powers are going to win in elections and how the confrontation of the bureaucratic corps and the society may bring to reproduction of power. It is highly expectable that the country may face a revolutionary situation.

We will see how things develop. However, President Kocharyan set himself aside from the danger of revolution and internal coupe d-ete by creation of a new party, and a new triangle of forces in the political arena (opposition, RPA and PA) can serve as a guarantee against such developments and, at the same time, enough for introduction of reforms, if anybody really wants it. Who knows, may be Vardan Oskanyan did not joke?

This article in Russian:
Севак Маркарян

Политическая система
Армении трансформируется

and in Armenian:

Սևակ Մարգարյան

Հայաստանի քաղաքական
համակարգը տրանսֆորմացվում է