One month after the voting day on the Presidential elections in Armenia the situation in the country is far from being serene. The state of emergency imposed from March 1 maintains peace only on the surface: the authorities regularly declare that there are no serious violations of the state of emergency rules. However, even the authorities do not take a risk to announce that the tension has decreased.

Now it is obvious that the date of expiration of the state of emergency, March 21 evokes as much anxiety as the date of its imposition. Although the Armenian authorities do not seem to prolong the extraordinary regime, they also to all appearances do not seem confident.

Arrests of the opposition leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s representatives continue and the geography of arrests expands. The fact that the wave of arrests, mainly of representatives of the opposition pre-election headquarters’ in different regions of the country, increases, demonstrates that the authorities are worried about further activation of the population in regions. It is difficult to find other explanations for these arrests.

Other developments are hardly possible, taking into account Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s statements regarding the renewal of the opposition rallies after March 21. The anxiety of authorities is easy to understand, for the restrictions imposed on mass media will be lifted after the indicated date. It is clear that the society will try to fill up the information gap not only be means of newspapers of limited circulation.

It is worthy to mention that not only the arrests and restriction of the freedom of speech have caused the tension within the society. Mainly, this tension was a direct reaction to the force break of the peaceful demonstration on March 1 that resulted in number of victims. The mass media which launched discussion of causes on why there are victims and providing one-sided coverage of the March 1 events do not contribute to establishment of the atmosphere of trust. On the contrary, the level of mistrust towards the officially issued information and the authorities significantly increased.

Also the decision of the Constitutional Court was made under the circumstances of the state of emergency is not viewed as a legitimate one but is rather perceived as a decision executed at the order of authorities. The authorities also understand this and their constant efforts to show the electoral process as completed look futile.

The reluctance of the western powers to recognize the victory of Prime Minister Serzh Sargysan also contributes to the maintained tension. Tough requirements posed by the US and European structures on the Armenian authorities, and lack of greetings of the newly elected president –Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan- are only stimulate the mistrust towards the results of the election.

In addition, a controversial situation is seen in the camp of pro-governmental forces. The policy of Serzh Sargsyan aimed at establishing a new pro-governmental coalition, does not seem to be a serious factor for stabilization of the situation in the country. The image of political forces, which demonstrated willingness to collaborate with the authorities, crucially deteriorated. Moreover, tension has aroused within the political parties, many of their members do not share decisions made by their leaders. Despite the statements of the Prime Minister regarding the changes within the system of power, there is no visible trust towards these statements.

Either way, the Armenian authorities appeared in a very complicated situation. Currently, a certain level of stability is maintained by means of additional mechanisms restricting the activeness of the society. Toughening the regimes in the governmental structures (mainly by threatening to dismiss those employees who sympathize with opposition), repressions of opposition, and restriction of alternative information are the mechanisms, used by the authorities as “crutches”. Thus, it is clear that efficiency of the authorities does not comply with the situation in the country.

No effective political measures are taken to defuse the tension. The National Assembly does not function as an important resource for the political settlement of the current situation. As a matter of fact, the representatives’ body limited its functions only to legitimizing resolutions coming from the President and the Prime Minister. The President and the Prime Minister do not demonstrate any willingness to change the instruments of reprisals with the political ones. The authorities tend to oppress the activity of society. Most likely, they hope to rebuild internal political situation which was in place before the election.

In this situation there is little hope for the dialogue between the opposition and authorities. Various groups of citizens try to protect their rights on their own. First of all, this concerns editors of opposition newspapers who realize that there can hardly work as before. The editors declared that the essence of the restrictions is to paralyze the opposition press and “maintain dictatorship”

Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s supporters are also active. Different parties apply to the city administration to obtain a right for organizing demonstrations and meetings. The city administration is in a tricky situation. It can neither authorize mass events nor substantiate the refusal. The relationship between the opposition and the authorities is becoming a dead-end.

Taking into account that the authorities have to safeguard peaceful conditions for inauguration ceremony of Serzh Sargsyan, the mentioned dead-end situation does not promise anything good. It is not an easy task to extend the terms of the state of emergency, because the West demands to lift it. The projects of the US financial aid are already at risk. Also, prices for the first necessity commodities are expected to rise. Lofting the state of emergency given may cause problems for the authorities in the current situation. However, no much time is left for decisions.

The only hope is that the confronting sides will seriously reconsider their positions. Any dialogue, undoubtedly, can defuse the situation.