11/29/05

Opposition forces in Armenia are protesting against what they say was a
rigged referendum, in which constitutional amendments were supposedly approved
by 93 percent of voters.

The main opposition complaint concerns the turnout figure for the November 27
referendum. Officials claim over 65 percent of eligible voters cast ballots.
Meanwhile, opposition estimates suggest turnout was somewhere between 16-21
percent. The turnout issue is critical because under Armenian law at least
one-third of eligible voters must support a referendum proposal for it to be
adopted.

Opposition leaders alleged that officials engaged in massive ballot stuffing.
“Armenian leaders should be included in the Guinness Book of World Records for
the scale of fraud,” the Arminfo news agency quoted Viktor Dallakian, a leader
of the Justice bloc, as saying on November 28.

International observers confirmed that the referendum featured instances of
abuse, but they stopped short of calling for the invalidation of the results. A
statement issued by the Council of Europe’s 14-member observer delegation said
the referendum was marred by fraud and ballot-stuffing. “The extremely low
voting activity did not correspond to the high figures provided by the electoral
commissions,” the statement said. The US State Department echoed the Council of
Europe’s concerns. “We call on the government of Armenia to investigate Council
of Europe observer reports of serious abuses and fraud,” a State Department
statement said.

The Council of Europe observers suggested that an opposition boycott of the
referendum abetted fraud. “The transparency of the referendum was further
hampered by the decision of the parliamentary opposition to call on their
members to withdraw from the electoral commissions,” the group’s report read. In
addition, the Council of Europe statement said the lack of outside observers
played a role in the irregularities surrounding the referendum. Armenian
authorities did not to invite an observer mission from the OSCE’s Office for
Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR). In a television interview
shortly before the referendum, President Robert Kocharian expressed the opinion
that ODIHR didn’t have a mandate to monitor referenda.

Garegin Azarian, the head of Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission, was
dismissive of the opposition complaints about turnout. According to a report
distributed by the Noyan Tapan news agency, Azarian maintained that the
opposition leaders’ decision to refrain from participating in the activities of
election commissions “deprived them of the right to present special opinions and
complaints.”

Despite the assertion of widespread fraud, Council of Europe observers, speaking
to members of the Armenian media on November 28, indicated that the result was
probably valid – with turnout clearing the one-third barrier. The observers,
however, offered no evidence to support their position.

In the weeks leading up to the referendum, the Council of Europe, the European
Union and the United States all backed the constitutional changes proposed in
the referendum. The amendments sought to expand citizens’ civil rights, and to
transfer power from the executive branch to the legislative branch. The
amendments were opposed almost from the start by opposition leaders, who argued
that Kocharian’s administration and the parliament lacked the legitimacy to
alter the constitution. The opposition based its stance on its contention that
the presidential and parliamentary elections of 2003 were rigged. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

While disapproving of the government’s conduct of the referendum, the United
States and EU nations appear reluctant to align themselves with the opposition.
The State Department statement, for example, reaffirmed US support for passage
of the constitutional amendments, arguing that they held the potential “[to
strengthen] democratic institutions in Armenia.”

It also appears that the opposition attempt to use the referendum controversy to
launch a fresh political offensive against the Kocharian administration is
failing to garner significant popular support. Local observers contend that most
Armenians have become politically apathetic in recent years. An opposition rally
November 28 against the referendum ballot-stuffing drew between 5,000-10,000
people, seemingly confirming the notion that the population is at present
largely indifferent to political issues.

Haroutiun Khachatrian