Armenians have welcomed the recent launch of a program to foster stronger ties
between the European Union and Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, but questions
persist in Yerevan about what will be the actual results of this new
partnership.

The November 14 adoption of the European Union (EU)-Armenia Action Plan for the
bloc’s European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) program is one of the few recent
topics that has met with apparent satisfaction from both the government and the
opposition.

The plan sets eight priority areas to be addressed as part of Armenia’s
cooperation with the EU over the next five years: strengthening democracy and
rule of law; enhancing respect for human rights; continuing economic development
and poverty reduction; improving the climate for private investors; streamlining
economic policy and policy administration; creating an energy strategy that
would include the decommissioning of the Medzamor nuclear power plant; working
towards a peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan;
and expanding opportunities for regional cooperation.

While the schedule for implementation of Armenia’s Action Plan will not be
completed until January 2007, the government is already emphasizing its
commitment to cooperation with the EU. Most notably, the Respublika Armenii
(Republic of Armenia) newspaper, a Russian-language government mouthpiece, wrote
in its November 15 issue that Armenia has asked the EU to monitor its
implementation of the Action Plan once a year, instead of once every two years,
as is standard.

The plan notes that "[t]he level of ambition of the relationship will depend on
the degree of Armenia’s commitment to common values as well as its capacity to
implement jointly agreed priorities, in compliance with international and
European norms and principles."

Already, though, the government is focusing on the possible rewards for
demonstrating that commitment. In a recent interview given to the Noyan Tapan
news agency, Deputy Foreign Minister Armen Baibourtian noted that a free trade
agreement with the EU could be one of the results of the Action Plan. The
Armenian government does not rule out that such an agreement could be signed
even before the completion of Armenia’s Action Plan in 2011, the deputy minister
said.

The potential economic benefits of closer ties with the EU have attracted
widespread support, but, not unexpectedly, many ordinary Armenians have also
displayed special interest in how the documents signed in Brussels will address
the question of Nagorno Karabakh. While in Brussels, Armenian Foreign Minister
Vardan Oskanyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov met to
discuss the Karabakh conflict as a precursor to a November 28 encounter between
Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev
during the Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Minsk. While President
Aliyev has stated that the negotiations have now entered their final phase,
Armenian media reports about the meeting, held at the Russian embassy in Minsk,
imply that no progress was made. The meeting was the third between the two
leaders this year.

The Armenian and Azerbaijani Action Plans include almost identical language
about goals for resolving the Karabakh conflict. The Armenian plan cites a
"[c]ontinuing strong EU commitment to support the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, drawing on the instruments at the EU’s disposal … and
in close consultation with the OSCE [Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe]." One distinction could be cause for future debate: the Actions
section of the Azerbaijani agreement mentions accomplishing this task while
observing "the relevant UN Security Council resolutions," but the Armenian
document mentions negotiation on the basis of international law, "including the
principle of self-determination of peoples."

During a November 18 public discussion on Armenia’s ties with the European Union
held at the Urbat (Friday) Club in Yerevan, analysts, however, were not
optimistic about the impact of the Neighborhood Policy on the conflict. At best,
they said, the EU could act as an "extinguisher" for tensions between the two
sides.

One analyst, however, expressed concern that, in other regards, Armenia may find
itself left behind in building a strong relationship with the EU, compared to
Georgia and Azerbaijan. Georgia may secure more rapid integration because of its
government’s strong pro-West orientation, contended Washington-based political
analyst Richard Giragosian, while Azerbaijan could prove attractive because of
its energy resources.

Giragosian, however, saw geopolitical benefits for the EU in extending its
European Neighbor Policy to the South Caucasus. The program allows the EU to
bypass Turkey, a regional player whose EU membership ambitions have proven
problematic, and to have contact with Iran, potentially via Armenia, a long-time
Iranian ally. "The formula is: ‘One step beyond Turkey, one step closer to
Iran’," Giragosian said.

Some observers saw other distinctions. Considerable attention has focused
recently on Georgia’s ambitions to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO). One opposition leader, Shavarsh Kocharian, head of the National
Democratic Party, suggested at the discussion that Georgia might, in fact, try
to use its NATO membership campaign to advance its ambitions to join the EU.

Strengthening democratic development could prove a surer way to advance
Armenia’s relationship with the EU, Kocharian continued. Like other opposition
members, however, Kocharian expressed doubts that the government would fulfill
its pledges to strengthen democracy and the rule of law along with economic
growth. Other discussion participants worried that Armenia’s opposition is not
strong enough to press for such changes.

Political analyst Giragosian shared Kocharian’s viewpoint, saying that the West
may reach the limit of its patience with Armenia if the country’s spring 2007
parliamentary elections fail to meet democratic standards. "Armenia now faces
greater expectations for clean elections. The key question is whether the
Armenian authorities understand that that the expectations of the West are
higher this time," he said.

At a July 2006 Republican Party of Armenia conference, Defense Minister Serge
Sarkisian predicted that the May 2007 vote will prove Armenia’s "best elections"
to date.

Haroutiun Khachatrian