According to the published statistics of the General Department of the Civil Aviation of RA, in January-August 2010, 61.000 passengers left Armenia from Zvartnots and Shirak airports and have not returned. Since 2008, a new wave of emigration has been registered in Armenia, which is regarded as a consequence of the events of March 1 and is conditionally named "the third wave", with its specifics that the emigrants leaving Armenia are from financially secure families.  

The number of emigrants for the same period of the last year made 47.000, which means that the emigration increased by 38.7%.  Meanwhile, the 2009 was called as the crisis year, and the 2010 as the year of crisis overcoming. If we continue this way, no one would leave in Armenia in 30 years.

According to non-Armenian research, specialists of the Gallup International, investigating trends of migration from CIS countries since 2009, mention that 39% of population of Armenia has a constant desire to leave the country.  In Georgia it is 14%, and in Azerbaijan-12%.

When people were leaving Armenia in 1990s, the reasons were clear: unstable political situation, collapsed economy, absent system of social security, which caused the loss of people's hope towards their future.  20 years have passed, but people still leave Armenia, and it seems that the reasons have not changed much: lack of trust towards the future still exists. Question: is it because Armenian people are sceptic or is it because the reforms pass by Armenia? 

There are several answers to this question, but we will discuss the two main issues, which are significant for the fluctuation of population number in any country. The first relates to the registered increase of prices in the sphere of economy. In 2010, prices in the consumers' market in October increased by 1% compared to the prices in September, according to the information published by the National Statistics Service on October 29. This makes 9.1% of increase in prices for the last 12 months. Compared with 2009, the increase in prices in December was 5.8%.

Thus, during 12 months, price increase is in its peak for the last 4 years.  As we recall, the Central Bank was legally obliged in 2010 to keep the increase at 4% +-1.5.

In October 2010 compared to September of the same year, 1.6% of price increase was registered for food: the prices for eggs, fruits, dairy and bread products increased by 20.9, 10.9, 3.9 and 2.6% respectively. ¹

In non-food market 0.9% of price increase was registered. According to the information provided by the National Statistics Service of Armenia, the increase was mainly conditioned by increase of prices for clothing 0.9-2.0%, shoes 3.4%, jewelry 7.3%.

In October 2010 compared to September 2010, the prices for gasoline and diesel fuel increased by 1.1% and 1.6% respectively. Compared with the October 2009, the prices for gasoline and diesel increased by 3.9% and 11.8%. ²

Reading the above mentioned reports, one can see that serious changes in the sphere of products' prices occurred countrywide, primarily price increase, which, accordingly, suggests that increase in salaries should be expected. However, the minimal salary is 30.000 Drams (≈90$). According to the draft Law "On the Minimal Monthly Salary", which passed its first reading at the National Assembly, the minimal wages starting from January 2011 will become 32.500 Drams. However, this will not be enough for people to provide satisfactory standard of life, since the added 2500 Drams will not bring much change.  Moreover, Artur Grigoryan, the Minister of Labor and Social Issues of RA, states: "The bigger increase in the salaries will cause disorder in macroeconomic stability and will lead to additional significant expenditures, which are not envisioned in the draft state budget for 2011".³

Thus, we suppose that the government leaves the people and its daily bread earning on the freak of the fortune. Imagine what would happen, if the people in wartime left the government on its own, right in the middle of the battle. 

Now let us observe another field: the health system, specifically the recently proposed draft law on pregnant women. According to the draft law on "Temporary Unemployment Benefits", women becoming mothers will receive allowance not for 140 days as it is now, but for 100 days, as the non-working days in the draft law are not counted. Probably, people in the government think that there are weekends for mothers in their childcare "job" as well. The draft law defines the benefit in the following way: if the woman's salary is more than 150.000 Drams (approximately 420 USD), then the allowance will be counted on the 150.000 salary basis.

There is an opinion that the appropriate bodies do this in their fight against illegal operation of businesses who hire pregnant women in their late months of pregnancy to obtain the allowance from the government.  So it seems that the government fights against illegal operations of businesses through the pregnant women and future mothers.  Had the people in the government asked themselves how this policy may influence on the decision of women to have more than 1 child, when even having one child already is a huge problem due to difficult financial conditions? Additionally the factor of 32% of sterility threatens to become a serious problem for a country with such a small population. According to scientific research, in 2020 the population of Armenia will increase by 200 thousand, while in Azerbaijan - by 1.2 million, in Turkey by 10.9 million and in Iran -by 11.3 million people. 

We believe that observing these two aspects, where the figures are so expressive, we can have the clear image of how short-sighted policies of the previous years affect  the migration process, and what consequences these policies will have in the future, if not changed. Probably complete elimination of migration will not be possible in Armenia, however, does it mean that the government should not initiate proper steps to avoid "the white genocide"?

Sofia Manukyan

Source: www.hra.am

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1. The increase in prices reached its peak- 9.1% in Armenia 

2. In October 2010, prices for non-food products increased by 0.9%

3. The government refused the proposal of the Heritage party to define the minimal salary as 45.000 Drams.