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Yerevan/Tbilisi/Brussels, 8 April 2008: As Armenia inaugurates a president
tomorrow amid its worst political crisis this century, the international
community must press it to defuse tensions and release political prisoners to
ensure stability and the environment to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
with Azerbaijan.

Armenia:
Picking up the Pieces, the latest policy briefing from the International
Crisis Group, examines the presidential elections of 19 February, the subsequent
crackdown on the opposition and the state of emergency, as well as underlying
problems with the country’s course. Serzh Sarkisian, the current prime minister
and president-elect, is President Robert Kocharian’s hand-picked successor, but
questions about his election and its violent aftermath will undermine his
authority. The vote was marred by serious irregularities, and the excessive
force and wide arrests by the authorities have caused a deep rift in society.



“Armenia’s democracy has in most respects been in retreat for over a decade,
with flawed elections, concentration of power in the hands of the executive and
an army and security services which enjoy virtual impunity”, says Magdalena
Frichova, Crisis Group’s Caucasus Project Director. “These latest events further
worsen a situation that has been deteriorating for far too long”.



On 1 March, police and security troops broke up a peaceful demonstration in
Yerevan’s Liberty Square against the announced official result of the
presidential election. Clashes with demonstrators intensified throughout the
day, and the violence left seven civilians and one police officer dead. Outgoing
President Kocharian reacted by declaring a sweeping twenty-day state of
emergency, which suspended many basic civil rights. Over 100 opposition figures
were arrested. Though the state of emergency was officially lifted on 21 March,
a new law places strict control on political demonstrations.



The Sarkisisan administration must begin by urgently seeking credible dialogue
with the opposition, releasing prisoners detained on political grounds, stopping
arrests and harassment of the opposition and lifting all measures limiting
freedom of assembly and expression. But it also needs to address the root causes
of the current political stability.



European governments and institutions, the U.S. and other actors with leverage
over Armenia need to say that cooperation will be more difficult unless an
independent investigation into the post-election violence is conducted, and
meaningful measures are taken to reconcile the resulting divisions in society
and return the country to the path of democratic reform. Unless prompt steps are
taken to address the crisis, the U.S. and EU should suspend foreign aid and put
on hold negotiations on further and closer cooperation.



“If the new presidency takes the right course, the EU and the U.S. can help
foster reconciliation and deeper institutional reform”, says Sabine Freizer,
Crisis Group’s Europe Program Director. “But they also need to call on Armenia
to remain a democratic state, with basic human rights protected and a functional
opposition that does not live in fear”.